The West is facing one of the worst winter flu outbreaks in years according to leading experts on the virus. A big leap in cases in Australia in recent months points to what is likely to happen in the West. many could be at risk of low immunity because of the relatively limited outbreaks during the past two years.
Professor Oxford, a virologist at The London School of Medicine and Dentistry said that "No one is sure why our patterns of flu tend to follow what happens in the Southern hemisphere during the summer but it does. Unfortunately, in Australia there has been a sharp outbreak with higher than normal numbers of flu strains A and B. We won't know a bit later into the year when flu levels start to peak- which generally happens when the weather gets colder and people start to congregate indoors more."
In Australia, the Department of Health and Ageing said flu levels had been "above the peak frequency experienced in previous years". At one point last month there were almost 2,000 new cases reported each week yet their population is a third the size ours.
The danger from the southern hemisphere is not the only issue to concern health professionals this winter, according to Professor Oxford. "Even without this I would expect older people to be hit harder by flu than they have been in recent years. That is because flu strains are like the survival of the fittest and for a couple of years the B strain that is normally prevalent over the winter has been overshadowed by other strains such as swine flu. With swine flu and avian flu both just bubbling in the background that means the B strain could strike hard this year."
"As it has not been around much for about two years people's natural resistance to it will be low and it could hot older people especially hard. It is the over 65s that usually die from this strain."
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